Why are the prices of 304 stainless steel plates rising against the market trend?
Support for the positive trend of futures: Since the beginning of July, black commodities in the domestic futures market have maintained a strong and volatile upward trend. Market participants believe that the fluctuation of black varieties in the futures market is closely related to macroeconomic fundamentals. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, GDP increased by 6.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Real estate development investment increased by 8.5% year-on-year; infrastructure investment increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Macroeconomic data is stable and improving, supporting commodity prices.
Improvement in raw material fundamentals: Recently, the fundamentals of ore have improved. The ore inventory of 304 stainless steel plants continues to rise rapidly. Under the circumstances of high profits, the demand for ore from steel plants is more concentrated on high-grade ore, and the inventory of mainstream resources such as PB powder at ports The price has dropped rapidly, resulting in shortages. At the same time, steel mills' acceptance of ore prices has increased significantly, which also gives room for ore to make up for the increase. The recent mining accidents in Australia and the port maintenance of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have affected the shipment of Australian mines. The fluctuation of foreign mineral supply has increased, shipments and arrivals are not as expected, and the supply of high-grade minerals has declined, exacerbating the pressure on the port inventory of high-grade minerals. . However, considering that the mine's production plan will still be gradually implemented, the contradiction between supply and demand of ore will still intensify in the medium and long term. Therefore, the rebound space of ore is relatively limited, and it will be difficult to change its weakest position in the black series in the later period.
On the demand side, both bulls and bears coexist:
1. According to statistical analysis by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July 2017, automobile production and sales showed slight growth both month-on-month and year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile production and sales slowed down compared with the same period last year. In July, my country's automobile production and sales maintained growth compared with the previous month and the same period last year.
2. In the off-season, project construction in various places is very active, so corresponding to the booming sales situation of Zhongda Excavator, according to data from the Machinery and Equipment Industry Association, the sales of the excavator industry in June increased by 103% year-on-year. At present, the high growth rate of excavators in the third quarter is relatively certain. It is expected that the sales volume of the excavator industry in the second half of this year will increase by more than 60%-70% year-on-year.
3. Since this year, my country’s infrastructure construction investment has maintained a high level, but there are still few steel structure projects, and the demand for medium and thick plates is generally weak. Industry experts believe that there is still a gap in the current funding sources for infrastructure investment, which may be Infrastructure investment will have an impact in the second half of the year.
Although the steel market has been in the traditional consumption off-season recently, the price of domestic 304 stainless steel plates has continued to rise, mainly due to the indirect boosting effect of the surge in steel futures, and the real terminal demand is weak. As steel futures hit new highs and then entered adjustment, merchants in the spot market are eager to ship goods and cash out. It is more likely that the spot steel market will undergo a round of adjustment in the short term.